Sino-Iran deal and impacts on globe

 

Sino-Iran deal and impacts on globe

Since 2016 and dubbed a comprehensive strategic partnership the deal signed between China and Iran is expected to boost their long-standing economic and political alliance. The cooperation would cover a wide range of Chinese investments in Iran's most important sectors including energy and infrastructure.

It's the first long-term agreement of its type to be signed by Iran with a major world power and comes at a tough time for Iran's economy that's been devastated by US sanctions.

The pact was signed in Iran's capital Tehran on Saturday 27 March 2021 that coincided with the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Iran.

 

Well China is Iran's long-standing ally and one of its largest trading partners and the two countries are believed to share an annual trade worth at least 20 billion dollars in recent years.

In 2016 Tehran and Beijing agreed to boost that more than tenfold to 600 billion over a decade.

Both nations have strained relations with the U.S and are under sanctions imposed by Washington while china's opponents say this cooperation.

This deal aims

Expand Beijing's economic:  

Political influence in the Middle East Tehran is hardening its stance towards the US

European signatories of the 2015 nuclear accord

Demanding US lift sanctions before it holds talks to revive that deal.

Iran in 2018 and former President Donald trump   

While the former President Donald trump pulled the US out of the nuclear deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran in 2018.

China is a signatory as are Russia, France, Germany and the European Union as a bloc

“Iran's President Hassan Rouhani” has voiced his appreciation of Beijing's support for Tehran's position on that accord saying cooperation between Tehran and Beijing is important for the:

1.      Implementation of the joint comprehensive plan of action

2.      Europeans commitments to the deal

3.      Can change the existing conditions

Chinese opinion

China says the cooperation deal with Iran

1.      No targeting to any country the plan focuses on tapping the potentials in economic and people-to-people cooperation between the two nations.

2.      Making plans for long-term cooperation prospects and paths it does not include specific quantified contracts or indicators.

3.      It's not targeted at any third party it is believed that this plan will provide a large-scale framework for future cooperation between China and Iran.

 

Hamed Mousavi, Professor of Political Science at Tehran University. Theresa Fallon,

Einar Tangen, Political and Economic Analyst who's a political and economic analyst

in Tehran Hamad Musavi a professor  of political science at Tehran university  and from Theresa Fallon, Brussels is Teresa.

 

 

 

 

 

Reviews of Teresa

According to the reviews of Teresa by laying out the strategic plan with Iran  is china positioning itself as a great  superpower and sending a message to the US or is it coming to Iran's rescue with the nuclear deal hanging in the balance in the country suffering under US sanctions .

Visits during “Biden administration”

Bit of both countries as a huge momentum growing during the visit of Secretary of state Lincoln to Japan and South Korea as part of the revitalization of alliances than the meeting in anchorage between the Chinese and the US the first time during the “Biden administration”.

Which was quickly followed by Secretary of state Lincoln's to Nato and then Lavrov who is a Russian politician and diplomat visit to China so this is part of a growing  narrative at the same time .

EU imposed sanctions because of Human rights abuses in Xinjiang and then the US, UK and Canada also had the same sanctions. This is part of a longer wider narrative this agreement has been under negotiation for quite some time.

Significance of it being announced on Saturday in this momentous week of activity in regards to Russia with respect to China and the US kind of allying with various groups.

Secretary the PRC, Secretary of defense traveling to Serbia, Hungary, North Macedonia and Greece  in order to ensure that they will do defense cooperation with them.

Wang Yi the Chinese Foreign Minister was in turkey

China always verdicts that they don't like cold war but it seems that china is  trying to  signal that they have these alliances who will stand with her if US tries to recall cold war strategy.

China  golden key for Iran in time of sanctions

Iran has long been a key issue for them on the belt and road initiative it's a good match Iran under sanctions really needs new infrastructure and investment.  So she grabbed headlines 400 billion although China always hides her donations/deals. But still it means it would be some money up front for Iranian oil and it also kind of throws a little bit of a wrench into the JCPOA negotiations.

US and Iran concessions negotiations

Biden administration has made it clear they would like to see some form of a concession from Iran before they begin further negotiations.

This agreement was in fact proposed back in 2016 by China and there was a draft of  it that was leaked to the media last  year but still its ahead now re-negotitated

US and its allies as Biden said he is trying to put together a gang of countries who are going to put China in its place if you think about the parallels position to US either directly or indirectly.

 

Historic stumbling and falling into war

Kind of position of pre-world war one when an ascendant Great Britain was concerned about rising Germany and  was making up all these alliances and things like that in essence trying to avoid war they  stumbled into it.

1.      One issue with what trace has depicted that is this idea that it's China engaging in Cold war.

2.      This has been orchestrated on the US side the unilateral tariffs have not been withdrawn instead there is almost a daily drum beat of negative press of actions against Chinese officials.

3.      More piling on in terms of economics delisting Chinese companies can't go on unanswered and this idea that it's somehow China's fault that the US is attacking is a false narrative.

                                                  

The point of view from Iran, Musavi

 Iran is betting on China ultimately is this going to be a good bet for Iran and how people inside the country viewing it.

This is something very significant  for Iran as she has been under intense pressure  ever since Donald trump came into power  and unfortunately the Biden  administration is also following the  so-called maximum pressure campaign. So Iran's economy has been under a lot of pressure and essentially this agreement will give Iran breathing space against US pressure.

Issue with Iran

 It will give some leverage in potential nuclear talks but the long-term issue here is that Iran is signaling to the west that the more pressure they put on Iran the more Iran will go to the eastern camp. Even right now in Iran there are some calls from the parliament that they should devise something similar with the Russians.

If this trend continues then Iran will become very closely allied with the Russian and the Chinese  in any future.

Confrontation against the United State Iran there has been some criticism

 Iran's revolutionary slogan over four decades ago was neither go East nor West so some people are criticizing and saying why should we go into the eastern camp.

If putting that slogan aside maybe it's better to join the western camp but nevertheless this is something that has been clearly supported by Allah almighty who is the supreme leader of

Iran so it's not even only the government of Hassan Rouhani but something much larger.

 

 

 

China sort of  instigating cold war that's in fact he disagrees with that and  also  to what extent Washington  is really going to be worried about this deal because Iran's  supreme leader back in February said the  post-US era has started.

 Political reviews are propagating or is there anything true, that there's a bit of a  future bob in that for Iran because China's policies in Xinjiang that needs the type of re-education camps as the

Chinese themselves have described them.

This causes a lot of friction with other countries and if Iran is willing to turn a blind eye to that and to get investment from China. This might cause problems further down the road.

Wangi's visit in turkey

There was huge protests against what China is doing in Xinjiang in addition to China has these  agreements that they negotiate over time.

They can actually agree to them finally at the most particular time in history where it has

a maximum impact we've seen that in Europe with the comprehensive agreement on  investment. China investment agreement that was long negotiated for seven years 35 meetings and it was agreed in principle on  december 30th under

Angela Merkel who had the rotating European council presidency and German interests are largely in this agreement. Because of German car industry and other interests in china so

China kind of kept it on low burner until it had maximum impact.

 

 Because the US administration said wait we're coming in the new Biden administration was coming in there was kind of a Trans a period of transatlantic drift under the Trump administration and the Biden administration made it very clear.

Chinese counter sanctions strategies  to EU

It wanted to revitalize relations with allies by giving last-minute concessions Xi Jinping stepped in gave last minute concessions to the Europeans in order to get this over the line.

Which meant that in one sense they were hoping to buy Europe's silence and so that's why the counter sanctions that China put on Europe showed the extent of their anger. So, the sanctions that were put in place on Monday uh the 22^nd March, 2021.

Quickly followed the same day by counter sanctions which actually sanctioned members of the

European parliament and the European parliament must ratify this economic agreement and by  doing that they've actually alienated  them so china has kind of overplayed their hand.

 

1.      They not only sanctioned European leaders they also sanctioned the political and security committee which is made up of 27 EU ambassadors and their families are included in that

2.      Sanctioning strategic list they also sanctioned an entire Germany.

3.      Think tank demonstrated that they want discourse power as well they want to say we don't like what you say about China's we're going to sanction  even an academic institution. In addition to that they even sanctioned the Head of a Swedish think tank.

4.      They might misunderstood Europe very much because when they attack people who want  independent academic inquiry into what's  happening in China. Politicians who are asking  what is happening in Xinjiang.

5.      They sanction them this badly backfired because they're attacking  freedom of speech and basic rule of law and even the very roots of democracy.

 

There are sanctions on China and there are sanctions on Iran US sanctions that is so how much of this deal can actually be implemented with these sanctions limiting how much Chinese companies, how much business Chinese companies can actually conduct in Iran.

They can conduct quite a bit and with the digital Yuan it will probably increase political strain and stress and it might give a long narrative.

Chinese verdicts

Kind of laundry list of things that she thinks are going on from Beijing's point of view  the situation is Xinjiang they see it  completely differently.

They see it as a necessary step and something that they've done in all parts of china which is  in essence to teach people the history  and language so that they're not  stuck in a backwater and unable  seek meaningful employment.

China's the one who's been taking people out of poverty they have not been segregating people on the basis of who they are. 

 Which is the the deal between china and iran

The deal is not just a deal it’s a geopolitical shift that would agree both the sides with win-win strategies. They are looking east how long that will happen no one knows but the reality is that the money is moving east Oil, Energy is being used in Asia.

 

 

 

 

 

At far greater levels the United States is in essence which is pretty much self-known, self-supplying as long as the price of oil is above 45 and they can use. Fracking Europe is another matter there's somewhere in between but this does give Iran breathing room.

Iran could use Chinese backup to nuclearizing herself

Hopefully will not be an excuse to continue with nuclear capabilities that is not good for anybody but there has to be a very clear and open stance on this thing.

The fact it's the worst kept secret in the world that Israel has nukes plenty of them and is willing to use them in the case that they are overrun.

At this point it really if there is going to be a denuclearization if Iran China, US are going to start  cooperating along with Russia  and Europe there has to be some  absolute clarity and  stop with this kind of narratives.

 Chinese tit-for-tat to US

China is stuck in this kind of tit-for-tat response to the US that is going to solve anything there has to be some more creative thinking  and more thinking in terms of the  international situation.

Between these two powers is having an immense effect on the rest of the world and preventing  in many cases the real progress being made on the pressing issues. As they have bullied the freedom of speech, Freedom of expression of media. Climate change, Covid-19, and also the nuclear deal every phase is badly impacted by tussle.

 

 

Biden administration has not been willing to do co-operation thus far this agreement with china is actually showing the Americans  that Iran has other options and this is something positive for Iran.

Issue of military cooperation when military cooperation Iran's position is not a so-called  Defense pact with China and Iran does not expect to go into war the with the United States. Wants that nevertheless in the long run Iran can become closer to the Chinese especially since they can't buy military and equipment from most countries they have no choice other than to rely on the Russian and on the Chinese regarding its military.